Predict.fun (PREDICT)

Predict gives very few points to Takers; if you are only there to farm, Takers basically lose money; and the platform's fees are mainly contributed by Takers.

In this situation, achieving $5.6 million in fee revenue in a month is already very impressive.

Even after subtracting the approximately $2 million extra contribution during the World Cup event, the regularized revenue still hovers around $3.6 million, and the value of this data is actually very high.

I think Ding's overall strategy is correct: points should primarily go to Makers, not to Takers.

Because the most important thing in prediction markets is not to churn out a lot of fake trading volume, but to first build liquidity. As long as the order book depth is sufficient, real users will naturally come in.

Under this points mechanism, Takers don't have a strong incentive to inflate volume, so most of the trading volume we see now should be genuine.

Of course, the problem is also very clear:

After the TGE, can these liquidity levels be maintained?

After all, the core of prediction markets is liquidity.

My understanding is that prediction markets never lack real users; what they truly lack are liquidity providers.

But Makers currently are basically losing money to earn points. After the TGE, without airdrop expectations, pure sentiment alone certainly won't retain these people; they can only continuously reinvest fee revenue back into liquidity.

Based on the current revenue level, the platform is likely able to allocate close to $1 million each week for liquidity incentives.

I personally believe that as long as this level can be sustained long-term, it should be enough to stabilize the current liquidity.

What comes next is to build aggressively, solidify cooperation with Binance, and continuously seize global events like the World Cup and the US elections, steadily onboarding new users batch after batch.

@predictdotfun @dingalingts
@ricardogee @TC8880 @web3houzi

A historic first: Predict becomes the first project ever to have its point system and leaderboard integrated into the @binance and @binancewallet apps.

https://t.co/MwtvK6pWZo

predict @predictdotfun updated the point rules last night; the new rules will take effect after 10:00 on next Tuesday, which corresponds to week 20.

Based on the rules in DC and @dingalingts's discussion this morning in the community, we will explain the new rules:

1. Point distribution changes from a "fixed issuance" to a "dynamic supply pool".

· Weeks 1-19: total of 10 million points per week;
· After week 20: the weekly total is no longer fixed at 10 million points; it is highly likely that weekly points will be less than 10 million (potentially deflationary!). According to @dingalingts, the officials can control the total points issued each week, but it does not guarantee that every market with points will have participants earning points 100% of the time. Therefore, even if the set total may be slightly higher than 10 million, the actual points earned by users are likely to be below 10 million.

2. The boosted probability is removed; different markets will receive different rewards based on their hourly point ratio, which is determined by various factors.

· Points allocated to each event will be displayed on the front end, fully transparent, on an hourly basis;
· Points are distributed hourly;
· Different markets receive different point allocations. For example, newly launched popular events (not available on Polymarket) will be assigned high points, such as NBA game points being 7.5 times the pre-game amount.

3. After a period of time, a USDT reward pool will be added, and users with points will be able to freely allocate them to markets.

Finally, we reiterate that points from accounts engaged in malicious point farming will be cleared.