$SOL
Solana is slowly entering the area where I'm starting to pay attention for the next cycle.
Last bear market, SOL topped around $260 and eventually bottomed near $8.
Most people quote the full 97% drawdown, but that number was heavily distorted by the FTX collapse and subsequent estate liquidations.
Before that event, SOL had already lost roughly 90% of its value.
That's the ballpark I think is more relevant.
This cycle, SOL topped around $295, and at current prices, it's already down roughly 77%.
If you apply the same drawdown compression we've seen across BTC and ETH over multiple bear markets, then an 80-85% correction feels like a reasonable baseline.
That would put SOL somewhere in the $45-60 region.
Coincidentally, that's also where the lower acceptance cloud likely sits for the cycle bottom based on predictive maths.
That's the area I care most about.
Historically, every meaningful accumulation opportunity in SOL has come from that region and below.
Last cycle, price first touched the lower cloude line around $17 before the FTX liquidation event forced a temporary overshoot to $8.
And the reality is that nobody spent the next cycle regretting purchases made at $17.
The question this time is whether that support holds without a forced seller distorting the chart.
If it doesn't hold, then I think the weekly support just above $50 becomes the obvious golden opportunity to buy.
That's where my interest starts increasing significantly, and not because I think SOL can't go lower.
But because the risk-reward starts becoming difficult to ignore.
Personally, I'm not interested
chasing it here at $68.
Give me the lower cloud. Give me a flush below $60.
Then let the market build a base.
That's where I'd start executing accumulation for the next cycle.
