very cool research and animation.
HarryPotterTrumpSonic100Inu BTC Price History USD
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So how painful was this MSTR bear? I did some simulations. MSTR closed at $473.83 on Nov 20, 2024. Standing at that peak, I resampled its bitcoin era monthly returns into 1,000 random futures and let them run 20 months, using only data available before that day. Then I drew what actually happened on top.
Reality landed in the 2nd percentile. 21 of the 1,000 simulated paths ended below where the stock trades now. The median path ended near $1,598 because the inputs carry the full drift of the 2020 to 2024 run up.
To me that is the lesson. A dumb model with no opinion still put about a 1 in 48 chance on an outcome this bad or worse. The narrative at the peak put zero.
Method is on the chart: monthly closes, split adjusted, bootstrap with no drift adjustment, log scale.
Would you have taken 48 to 1 against this outcome in November 2024?
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If Bitcoin dominance fades, where does the attention go next?
Utility or memes?
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