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@Woo_Minkyu Complete analysis ⤵️
https://t.co/OriYP8DC3R

⚡️ RESEARCH: Bitwise's European research arm put a model-implied fair value of $224,000 on Bitcoin this week, framed as a credit default swap on G20 sovereign debt.

The framework comes from analyst Greg Foss's 2021 model, which prices Bitcoin as a non-correlated hedge against major sovereign defaults. The $224,000 figure derives from the weighted default probability across G20 sovereigns and the market cap of the bonds being notionally insured.

The sovereign stress case is not theoretical. Japanese 30-year JGB yields hit record highs. The IMF and OECD project $29T in sovereign and corporate borrowing from bond markets this year, 17% above 2024. Ten-year swap spreads, which measure sovereign risk premia, sit at their highest level since the 2011-2012 European debt crisis.

The report also flagged a near-term headwind. Strategy's STRC perpetual preferred equity has traded below par as higher global bond yields compress its appeal. Strategy has accounted for roughly two-thirds of institutional Bitcoin demand v