TLDR
- Jefferies upgraded Shopify (SHOP) to Buy and raised its price target to $160, implying 31% upside from current levels.
- Analyst Samad Samana cited third-party data pointing to a stronger-than-expected Q2 earnings beat.
- Jefferies sees Shopify as a key infrastructure layer for agentic commerce and AI-powered shopping.
- A potential price increase on non-Plus and Plus plans could boost revenue and profitability in 2027.
- Stifel also upgraded SHOP to Buy last week, setting a $150 price target and expecting 30%+ revenue growth in 2026.
Shopify (SHOP) moved about 2.4% higher in premarket trading on Monday to $125.48, after Jefferies upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold and raised its price target to $160.
The new target is up from a prior $140 and implies roughly 31% upside from current levels.
Jefferies analyst Samad Samana made the call, pointing to third-party data suggesting Shopify’s Q2 gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth is running ahead of what Wall Street currently expects.
Q2 results are due on Wednesday, August 5, 2026.
Samana said the data gives the firm confidence that Shopify will beat consensus estimates when it reports.
Partner Program Changes in Focus
Jefferies also flagged Shopify’s updated partner program as a near-term growth driver.
The changes are designed to push partners toward signing larger merchants and focusing more on customer success.
The firm expects this to lift near-term growth while reducing sales and marketing costs over the longer run — a combination that could improve margins.
On the AI side, Jefferies sees Shopify as well-placed to become the infrastructure layer for agentic commerce — where AI agents handle parts of the shopping process on behalf of consumers.
Samana described Shopify as the “agent enablement” toolkit for merchants, a framing that positions it at the center of a shift in how online retail works.
Pricing Power Could Add to 2027 Upside
Jefferies also raised the possibility of a price increase, which it sees as another potential revenue driver heading into 2027.
Shopify last raised prices on non-Plus plans in 2023 by around 33-34%, and on Plus plans in 2024 by 25%.
Since then, the company has added a range of new features — most notably Sidekick, its AI assistant — while absorbing the associated costs internally.
Jefferies believes that gap between added value and unchanged pricing sets up a credible case for another increase.
Jefferies isn’t alone in warming up to SHOP. Last week, Stifel analyst J. Parker Lane also upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold, lifting his price target to $150 from $110.
Lane cited expected market share gains, enterprise sales momentum, international expansion, and payments growth.
He also flagged 30%+ revenue growth as a realistic target for 2026 and called the recent stock pullback a buying opportunity.
Wall Street’s broader consensus sits at a Strong Buy, with 23 Buy ratings and just two Hold ratings.
The average price target across analysts currently stands at $158.37, pointing to roughly 29% upside potential from current levels.
SHOP was trading at $125.48 in premarket on Monday, July 13.
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