G’day Folks,
Bitcoin is holding its ground in the high $70ks, and thus far has only offered dip buyers a ~5% pullback from the $81.4k local high.
My observation is that many investors remain under-allocated to the corn, having not bought as much as they had hoped, likely due to expectations of lower prices in Q4.
Whilst I’m not going to pretend that a resumption of the bear market, and lower prices under $58k are impossible, it is also quite far from my base case.
Just as bulls must have a set of invalidation criteria for their market thesis, so too must the bears. Back in October 2025, I started documenting how the $95k level was The Bulls Last Stand, and breaking below it would be a very clear signal that we had fully transitioned into a bear market. As the market traded below key price models at the time, like the STH cost basis (which was $114k) and the 200DMA (which was $110k), the odds we reached that Bulls Last Stand accelerated quickly.
In my opinion, the equivalent level for The Bears Last Stand is $82k, which is a stone’s throw away, and I believe it will be very difficult to justify a bear case should it break.
Today’s analysis focuses on my thinking as to why we have not yet broken this critical level, and what past bear-to-bull transitions can teach us about similar examples in the past.
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Disclaimer: The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are in line with their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at their own risk.