Watch List — Second Batch June 9th 7am
Guys, before we get into the next batch, I want to be clear: today is not an all clear just because CPI helped turn some things from red to green.
Yes, the CPI reaction helped the tape. But we still have PPI tomorrow, we still have geopolitical issues, and we still have the Fed talking. And as I’ve said repeatedly, the rate-hike pressure has already shown up through the bond market. We’ve effectively had the equivalent of several hikes through the move in yields over the last few weeks.
So no, this is not where we go crazy.
That said, crypto is a tiny market compared to traditional markets.
It does not take a lot of money to move some of these names, especially when people start reacting emotionally to one clean data print.
We do not chase. We do not go all in. We identify the structure, define the risk, and take small shots where the chart gives us a reasonable setup.
Here’s the second batch from the watch list.
NEAR
NEAR had the big move already, so this is not an early sniper entry anymore.
It ran hard, pulled back hard, and is now trading around $2.12, basically sitting right around the 21-day EMA near $2.15. The 200-day SMA is way below around $1.51, so the bigger structure is still improved, but the short-term move has already been violent.
This is the kind of chart where people get excited after the move already happened. That is not where I like to chase.
If NEAR holds the $2.00–$2.15 zone, it can stay in play. If it reclaims $2.50, then the next push toward $2.80–$3.00 becomes possible again. But if it loses $2.00, I would not be stubborn.
How I’d play it:
Entry zone: $2.00–$2.15 only if it holds
Strength entry: reclaim $2.50
Target: $2.80–$3.00
Cut bait: clean loss of $2.00
Bottom line: NEAR is tradable, but not early. It needs to hold the 21-day area or reclaim strength. I would not chase it in the middle.
XLM
XLM is sitting right on the decision line.
Price is around $0.190, with the 21-day EMA near $0.196 and the 200-day SMA near $0.188. So it is basically sitting between short-term resistance and longer-term support.
This is why the next few candles matter.
XLM had the big spike, gave a lot of it back, and is now testing whether the 200-day can act as support. If it holds this area, it can rebuild. If it loses the 200-day, the breakout attempt starts looking like another failed spike.
How I’d play it:
Entry zone: $0.188–$0.190 if the 200-day holds
Strength entry: reclaim $0.196–$0.20
Target: $0.22, then $0.25
Cut bait: clean loss of $0.188
Bottom line: XLM is a support-test chart. I would not chase it. I’d either buy the 200-day hold with tight risk or wait for the reclaim above $0.20.
MORPHO
MORPHO is one of the cleaner charts in this batch.
Price is around $2.03, above the 21-day EMA near $1.92 and well above the 200-day SMA near $1.58. That means the chart is still structurally healthy, and unlike some of these names, it is not sitting below the major moving averages.
The chart has been volatile, but the important thing is that it bounced from support and reclaimed the 21-day. That is constructive.
If MORPHO holds above $1.90–$1.92, this stays in play. The next upside area is $2.40, then the prior high zone around $2.70–$2.80.
How I’d play it:
Entry zone: $1.90–$2.00
Strength entry: hold above $2.05
Target: $2.40, then $2.70–$2.80
Cut bait: clean loss of $1.90
Bottom line: MORPHO is one of the better-looking structures here. It is above the major moving averages, momentum is improving, and buyers are defending the chart.
IO
IO is also interesting because it has reclaimed structure.
Price is around $0.172, above the 21-day EMA near $0.158 and above the 200-day SMA near $0.140. That is a good sign. It means the chart has stopped being dead money and is trying to build above its moving averages.
This is exactly the kind of chart I like for a small trade because the risk is easy to define.
If IO holds above $0.158, it remains constructive. If it pushes above $0.18, the next target becomes $0.20–$0.22.
How I’d play it:
Entry zone: $0.158–$0.172
Strength entry: reclaim $0.18
Target: $0.20–$0.22
Cut bait: clean loss of $0.158, with major damage below $0.140
Bottom line: IO is one of the more reasonable small-position setups here. It is above both key moving averages, RSI is above 50, and volume has started to show up. I like it as a small trade as long as it holds structure.
Final Thought
This is still a hostile macro environment, even if today looks better than yesterday.
So the point is not to get excited and start throwing money at everything green. The point is to identify which charts are actually improving, which ones are holding structure, and which ones give us clear risk.
Small entries. Defined exits. No hero trades.