batcat (BTC)

$BTC

Breaking out on momentum.

This moves to 70k+ soon IMO. https://t.co/X2DNx6OdFM

Was June 30th the Bitcoin bottom?

Bitcoin UTXOs in profit. The June 30 reading occupied the bottom 0.08% of all daily observations since 2016.

Bitcoin needed an 82.5% drawdown to generate comparable UTXO distress in 2019, 74.8% during March 2020, and only 53.1% today.

Ninety-day annualized volatility at the current UTXO floor was 37.2%, versus 84.4% in 2019 and 115.8% during the COVID 2020 liquidation.

Yes, roughly the same UTXO devastation now requires 21.7–29.4 fewer percentage points of price destruction.

The UTXO distribution is now 68% more sensitive to each unit of price drawdown than in 2019.

There have been only three independent sub-50% regimes since 2016:

December 2018: maximum additional downside after the first signal was 7.5%. Bitcoin returned 119% over 12 months and 458% over 24 months.

March 2020: the signal occurred on the price low. Bitcoin returned 1,083% over 12 months and 702% over 24 months.

June 2026: maximum additional downside has been 4.1%, followed by an 8.0% rebound from the June 30 price low.

The two completed regimes produced a median 12-month return of 601%.

Broaden the test to month-end observations in the lowest UTXO-profitability quintile and the result becomes 23 of 23 positive 12-month periods, with a median return of 94%, versus 64% across the full monthly sample.

We are so oversold... we have an extremely small sample size with current conditions.

In my opinion, this Bitcoin setup might have a C- for sample size but an A+ for asymmetry.