Lighter (LIT)

I ran 500,000 Monte Carlo paths to price what that capture is worth to LIT by end-2027. The chain is simple and it is the same one from the buyback piece: captured capital generates volume, volume generates revenue, 100% of revenue buys back LIT, and the buyback plus the multiple sets the price.

The inputs are ranges, not guesses dressed as facts. Sector agentic capital from 3 to 70 billion. A regulatory-clarity gate that fires roughly 60 to 70% of the time and unlocks 2 to 36 billion in compliant flow. Lighter's capture of each, sampled across a bull case where verifiability converts and a bear case where it does not.

Revenue yield of 1 to 5% on committed capital.
A forward price-to-sales multiple from single digits in the bear to the low forties in the bull. Circulating supply around 360 million at horizon, after the December 2026 unlocks net of buyback accumulation.

$LIT

Thursday, July 2 at 10:30 AM ET for a Q2-end investor call

Will feature an update from founder @vnovakovski and a Q&A session