Bitcoin (BTC)

🚨 UPDATE: $BTC supply in loss surpassed supply in profit for the first time this cycle, while LTH supply reached a record 14.85 million $BTC. https://t.co/rttk6rrtiv

🟠 Daily Bitcoin Report July 17, 2026 📊 PRICE ACTION Open: $63,770 | High: $64,353 | Low: $62,452 Current: ~$64,090 | Change: +0.50% (candle still open) The oil deadline came and went and Bitcoin didn’t blink. An overnight dip to $62,452 was fully bought back above $64K by the US session. The coil around $64K is now five days old. 📈 TECHNICAL READ Trend Exhaustion: 49.70 perfectly neutral after five days of consolidation. A 10% recovery off the lows has been fully digested with zero momentum froth. Springs don’t stay this compressed forever. Lower BB: $59,085 | SMA: $62,650 | Upper BB: $66,215 The bands are doing the quiet work: the lower band has climbed from $58.3K to $59.1K this week and the 20‑day SMA ($62.65K) is rising underneath price like a ratchet. 🔍 ON-CHAIN / FLOWS → Three straight days of ETF inflows: +$181M, +$108M, +$79M $368M total, and Thursday’s buying broadened across issuers (IBIT, FBTC, and Bitwise all positive). July is back net‑positive after June’s record $4.51B exodus. The streak matching the price floor is the tell: institutions are accumulating the range, not fleeing it. → Yearly context check: 2026 ETF flows are still −$5.4B. This recovery is climbing out of a deep hole which is exactly why there’s so much sid­eled capital to pull back in if the trend confirms. 📰 TODAY’S NEWS 1/ The General License X1 wind‑down expired at 12:01 AM ET Iranian oil transactions are now fully cut off, Iran says Hormuz stays closed “until further notice,” and the strait has been de‑facto shut for roughly 139 days. The market’s response: crude steady, Bitcoin flat. The “oil shock” is now fully priced structure, not an event risk. That removes the most‑cited bear catalyst of the month. 2/ The week ends with the macro slate clean: CPI cool, PPI cool, Beige Book soft, the deadline absorbed. Between now and the July 28–29 FOMC there’s no scheduled catalyst of equal weight meaning flows and positioning drive the next leg, not headlines. ⚖️ WHERE WE STAND Three weeks ago Bitcoin was making 21-month lows on record outflows. Today it closes a week where a hard geopolitical deadline landed and the tape yawned, ETFs bought three days running, and the floor kept rising. The weekly candle is tracking green for a third straight week the first such streak since the top. Nothing about this week was explosive; everything about it was accumulative. Stay Informed ⚡️

Is @saylor a liability for $BTC? https://t.co/w1S8RMNWNK

Bitcoin is true anarchy, if you can't deal with ppl doing shit you don't want with it, you are not going to have fun.

You can usually tell when someone’s threatened by Bitcoin… they suddenly start talking about energy use or “volatility” again.

📊【XWIN TREND INDEX｜July 18, 2026】 Composite Score: 52 / 100 ・80‑100 = Strong Uptrend ・60‑79 = Slightly Up ・40‑59 = Neutral • No Directional Bias ・20‑39 = Slightly Down ・0‑19 = Strong Downtrend 7‑day moving average line: 67.29 ↓ 14‑day moving average line: 63.50 ↑ The directional bias is “Neutral • No Directional Bias”. While BTC’s downside is still supported, the recent weakness in US high‑tech stocks, rising oil prices and uncertainty surrounding the CLARITY Act are cooling the short‑term trend. ――――――――――――――――――― Market Summary ・BTC briefly bounced back to the $64,000 range but retreated to around $63,000 amid rising geopolitical risk. ・In US equities, selling pressure on AI and semiconductor‑related stocks expanded, prompting a more cautious stance across risky assets, including crypto. ・Oil prices surged sharply on US‑Iran tensions, reviving concerns of a re‑accelerating inflation. ・In the past two weeks, inflows into spot BTC ETFs have improved, yet the cumulative net outflow for 2026 remains substantial. ・Increased inflows of stablecoins into exchanges suggest that new idle capital may be returning. ・FTX creditor repayments could provide a medium‑term source of capital back into the crypto market. ・The market size for RWA, equity tokens and on‑chain commodity trading continues to expand. ・Short‑term prices remain driven by macro factors, while institutional and financial‑infrastructure development proceeds. ――――――――――――――――――― On‑Chain & Technical Trend ・Coinbase Premium is showing an improving trend but has stayed in negative territory for an extended period, indicating US spot demand has not fully recovered. ・The BTC futures market has shifted from a sell‑side bias to a buy‑side bias, improving short‑term momentum. ・However, the spot market has not seen a complete return of strong buying, and caution is needed regarding futures‑driven rebounds. ・Large‑whale buying has been observed around $62,700‑$62,800, establishing a support level. ・Sell walls and profit‑taking pressure remain near $65,000‑$66,000. ・Long liquidations are clustering below the price, which could expand volatility during sharp declines. ・Loss‑realizing sells by long‑term holders are increasing, reflecting a capitulation phase typical of the late bear market. ・Indicators such as Supply in Loss point to an oversold condition, but a bottom confirmation will require a recovery in spot demand. ――――――――――――――――――― Sentiment ・The Fear & Greed Index has improved from “Extreme Fear” to “Fear”, easing extreme pessimism. ・Analysts note that large‑investor buying in BTC, SOL, XRP and DOGE now exceeds retail buying. ・Conversely, whale positions in ETH have turned bearish, showing a temperature split among assets. ・While optimism around the passage of the CLARITY Act persists, market expectations of its enactment have fallen and political uncertainty has grown. ・Although many lawmakers and agencies support the bill, bipartisan agreement on conflict‑of‑interest provisions is now the focal point. ・Resumption of ETF inflows signals improved sentiment among institutional investors, though sustainability remains to be confirmed. ・Short‑term investors’ optimism has rebounded, yet they remain highly wary of sudden macro‑market shifts. ・Current psychology is assessed as “the peak of pessimism is being passed, but a bullish turn is still unconfirmed”. ――――――――――――――――――― US Traditional Markets ・NASDAQ fell on AI and semiconductor‑driven weakness, curbing risk‑on sentiment in US equities. ・The S&P 500 and Dow also slipped, with geopolitical risk weighing more heavily than bank earnings or slowing inflation. ・Brent oil climbed to around $88, raising concerns of inflation re‑ignition via energy prices. ・The semiconductor index dropped sharply from its late‑June highs, entering a correction as capital concentration on AI‑linked assets eases. ・Demand for safe assets drove buying in US Treasury bonds, putting downward pressure on long‑term yields. ・The dollar lacks clear direction, caught between safe‑asset demand from geopolitical risk and easing inflation‑driven expectations of monetary easing. ・If high oil prices persist, expectations for Fed rate cuts may fade, creating additional headwinds for BTC. ・Regarding the CLARITY Act, the Senate Banking Committee is advancing its regulatory framework, but the timeline and political negotiations remain focal points. ――――――――――――――――――― Overall Assessment A shift from the prior day’s upward trend, compounded by US high‑tech stock weakness, rising oil, geopolitical risk and CLARITY Act uncertainty, has pulled the composite score down to 52. Meanwhile, the 14‑day average has risen to 63.50, maintaining a medium‑term improvement bias. Today’s focal points include buying support around $62,700‑$63,000, ETF flows, Coinbase Premium, open interest and stablecoin liquidity. If spot demand does not return while futures positions continue to grow, short‑term liquidation risk warrants attention.